Iran is and has been one of the most deeply involved third parties to the Iraqi insurgency. Just how far their influence goes and to what extent the Shia insurgency would have erupted if not funded and organized by Iran is difficult to say. But just days after Condi upped the ante on Iran regarding its nuclear facilities, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has himself upped the ante regarding Najaf.
The United States is slaughtering the people of one of the holiest Islamic cities and the Muslim world and the Iraqi nation will not stand by," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in an address broadcast on Iranian state television, according to the official government news agency.
For better or worse, the US and Iran are coming closer to a conflict. It may be played out only via covert ops or in diplomatic meetings, but the two sides are clearly beginning to directly target one another.
I wonder if Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani can calm the Iranians, or if this posturing is just a cover to allow the US to finish off Sadr without Iran or Sistani looking like wimps? Does anyone think that actual war is likely here or just huffing and puffing?
I have a deep suspicion that Iran doesn't want to lose its most powerful puppet in Iraq, but that Sistani may want to be rid of him without appearing to be involved in the mess. The Americans can then capture or kill Sadr (helping Sistani and hurting Iran). Sistani can then make amends with Tehran (become the recipent of its largesse?) and the Americans take the rap.
Thoughts?
U.S. Planning Assault in Najaf (washingtonpost.com)
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