www.electoral-vote.com October 21, 2004
If you really look at this from day to day you'll start to see some really interesting trends in favor of the President's victory. Remember, it's the electoral vote, not the popular vote that decides the next four years!
Specifically, the President is much more "strong" than Kerry in the states that are polarized in either camp: Bush has 147 strong votes and Kerry only 109. Kerry is also nearly twice as weak in his weak states: Kerry's weak votes are 87 vs. Bush's 47 weak votes. The "barely" category also favors Bush: the President has 63 "barely" electoral votes vs. Kerry's 79 "barely" votes. And now, the most intense battleground state (to use a tired phrase) is not Florida but Minnesota. Granted the "barely" states have increased, but as you notice from the 20 e-votes that Kerry lost from yesterday's map (Electoral-vote.com Oct. 20th Map) , the trend is in the President's favor.
I think that this map is absolutely fascinating as we approach November 2nd. You know the saying, an electoral-map speaks a thousand-words. . . .
1 comment:
What do you call the guy who graduates last in his medical school class? Yep: doctor.
I'm not too swayed by the weak/strong analysis because weak or stong, as long as Kerry remains where he is or loses very little support, he will win.
You are right that the trends look favorable for Bush, but I am not sleeping well on that fact alone. I'm still waiting for the Oct Surprise: Osama in chains. Didn't Theresa predict such?
Post a Comment