Monday, November 15, 2004

Again?

Iran made a deal:: "In a bid to ease international concern about its nuclear ambitions, Iran said it would stop converting uranium from Nov. 22. Tehran promised the IAEA it would suspend all uranium enrichment and processing activities as part of a deal with the European Union to avert any U.N. Security Council sanctions. "

I have deep skepticism about this deal. Doesn't it seem that the Iranians have waxed and waned regarding their openness to surprise inspections, the point of the nuclear facilities (and their shady placement inside bunkers and caves in some cases), and the solutions to which they would be amenable?

For more than 12 years, Saddam pursued much the same deflect/dodge strategy with the UN that Iran is pursuing now. Even after 12 years of UN containment and threats against his regime, Saddam was able to split the US with some of the most fractious political debate in 30 years. Remember, the anti-war sentiment was in support of a tyrant who had demonstrated his willingness to use unconventional weapons.

The Iranians haven't used such weapons (to my knowledge), and threaten only via proxy (Hamas and Hizbullah are both Iranian creations largely). And although al-Qaeda has a strange relationship with the Iranian rulers, with it being alternatively pursued and encouraged, Iran has never yet openly embraced it.

Given the difficulty of building support for toppling Saddam -- a known killer -- how strong will world support be against such an amorphous threat?

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